User talk:Jack1681
From Openmoko
Chaos is nearer the surface than we imagine, waiting to break through
YOU could argue that for our sanity we need to believe in certain things. We need to believe in order, for example. We need to believe that things are in some way under control, that we, or someone else, is on top of things, has a grip. Beyond our belief in order lies the appalling vista. It is the stuff of nightmares, of horror films.
We need to believe, too, that the Government is in charge. Despite increasing evidence to the contrary, we cling needily to the notion of this paternalistic institution to which we have delegated the running of the bigger picture. Once we can believe that they are there fighting the macro-battle, then we can focus on our own petty struggles. And every time we read about further deterioration in the economy, or the world order, we can console ourselves with the notion that while we are powerless to do anything, we have a Government and it is, presumably, on top of things.
So we literally suspend disbelief as we observe the weekly routine that is the Oireachtas. We will ourselves to believe that the talking, and the plans, and all the rest of it, are going to make a difference, maybe even that they will work. We may disagree with the talk and the plans at times, but part of us gullibly thinks that these guys are, in some way, competent to be in charge. This necessary gullibility is revealed by the fact that until very recently, most of the media -- and many of the public -- wilfully allowed themselves to believe that this Government was on top of things, despite the fact that since before last summer the Government has been adrift.
While much has been made of this Government's apparent need to "get real", many of these exhortations have come from an Opposition that has resolutely refused to get real itself. It is an Opposition that has put playing political games and political opportunism ahead of actually eyeballing what is an extraordinary shift in our whole world, and positioning ourselves for this shift . buy uggs .
But then again, who is going to be the politician to turn to the people and say the real truth? "Things are never going to be the same again. The world as we know it is disintegrating. You need to radically alter your expectations of life. The value of everything is up in the air and could be nothing, as are all the systems and certainties that our lives up to now were based on. Indeed, the very sovereignty of our State is now in doubt as we are moving, with increasing haste, towards bankruptcy. There is a high possibility the country is going to run out of money, and one week soon we simply will not be able to pay people's dole, or nurses' wages or any other bills.
"We're not really sure what will happen then because the very institutions that might bail us out in that situation, like the IMF or the ECB, might not at that point be able to bail us out. We can take nothing for granted anymore, including the world order."
The closest any politician has come to looking the people in the eye and telling them the mind-blowing truth about what's going on is, funnily enough, Brian Cowen, when he told the Dublin Chamber of Commerce that our children would probably not enjoy the same standard of living as we do. It was, when you think about it, a fairly radical thing to tell people because you are asking Irish people to let go of another one of our core beliefs -- that the country is constantly getting better and that each generation enjoys a standard of living that is higher than that of our parents. Remember, this is a country that went from hobnail boots to ugg boots, from poor farmers to farmers' markets, in little more than two generations. We are a country that believed a year ago that things could only get better. The notion that we could now slip back, from being one of the richest countries in the world, to being a Second World, or indeed a Third World country again, is unimaginable for most of us.
Just as we need to believe we have tamed our demons with civilisation and order -- two immutables that cannot break down -- we need to believe too that we have conquered poverty and our past with unrelenting progress.
Of course, one of the reasons that no politician has told people how much in freefall the foundations upon which we have built our lives actually are is because most politicians are in denial too. They believe that conducting the weekly circus in the Dail, having pops at each other and dissing whatever plan the opposite side moots is still, in some way, acceptable behaviour. They do not realise that democracy as currently practised in this country has failed, is in terminal failure, and is now irrelevant.
Can you believe for example, that the Government is still waiting for a report from the Commission on Taxation? Its effort to speed things up has apparently been to tell the Commission to report in July instead of September. We could, as the man says, all be dead in July, but somehow it seems that the Government thinks it is still OK to wait for some report on what we should do about wider tax reform.
This at a time when any taxi driver could probably offer a decent stab of a taxation plan for the country -- and at a time when people are prepared for the worst in terms of taxation. It was last Tuesday before Brian Cowen realised the country was screwed and needed a mini-budget, despite the fact that schoolchildren were muttering the day after the last Budget that it was not enough and we would need another one within months. Mary Coughlan thought, just the other day, that the country's finances were in good shape. Fintan O'Toole, who has set himself up as a tax expert, appears to be running the Opposition's policy -- which is "Eat the rich". Trust me: politics is not working here.
So now we need to consider something different, now we need to consider something that could get a grip on things. If our politicians don't realise this, they will realise it soon enough. Who among them, do you think, will dare leave
the safety of Leinster House to campaign for local or European elections, or, indeed, for a Lisbon Treaty? Who among them will relish going out among the people if there is a general election? Can't you picture it? Politicians getting egged, getting a dig instead of a dig-out? Rival factions of canvassers and supporters going at each other?
Of course by then we will presumably have unrest on the streets anyway, as unions or taxi drivers or whoever else having taken to the city centre are encouraged by the kind of sinister elements who start sowing seeds of unrest wherever there is discontent. It's a miracle that some public gathering hasn't ended in rioting yet, but it will happen soon enough as people lose hope even further and as the vague sense of chaos and drift out there begins to crystallise in people's minds.
The mini-Budget and the continuing inability of the Government to seem to be in charge will form the background to unrest -- will, if you like, provide an ambience that is conducive to unrest. The opportunity and immediate catalyst for unrest will be protests or election campaigns. And once it has happened once, and civil society is breached, and the world doesn't end, then it will happen more and more, and soon at every place where people gather in public there will be tension and the potential for unrest. With trust in the financial system and the political system gone, soon enough people will lose faith in all systems. Chaos is much nearer the surface than we imagine, waiting to break through, and once it breaks through, it's like a virus.
So what kinds of measures should we consider? The idea of a so-called National Government has been batted around a bit recently. However, it is difficult to say if there is anything inherently inspiring about the current incumbents of Leinster House all working together instead of agin each other.
What we probably need to try now are some kind of emergency measures that allow us to react to the situation as quickly as it develops. Waiting for the Commission on Taxation or an Bord Snip Nua to report months down the line makes no sense now. Neither does the Government being unable to cut civil service pay because the legal advice is that they can't. Similarly a Government that needs to spend months fooling around with the social partners before it can make a decision about economics has no place in the world right now. Neither has a Government that is legally constrained from cutting tribunal lawyers' fees. Buy cheap ugg boots .
In fact, come to think of it, much of the country is tied up in red tape that was designed for more genteel times. This is not a particularly relevant example right now but it is a rather telling one: Did you know that 85 per cent of the staff of the Office of Public Works, the Government department responsible for decentralisation, are refusing to move to their decentralised location? Irrelevant right now, but just another example of the kind of rubbish that is still going on as Rome burns.
These are sterner and more urgent circumstances, and it is perhaps time that we looked at suspending some of our more civilised instruments of running the country. After all, it is the very collapse of civilisation that we are battling for right now, so we need to fight a bit dirty, just so the centre can hold in some way. Standing on ceremony, as we are wont to do, could only be a recipe for greater chaos.
